Jon Batiste National Anthem Length Betting on Polymarket
Targeting the "NO" for 90-100 Seconds
The over/under line for the length of Jon Batiste’s national anthem performance at Super Bowl 59 is currently set at 2 minutes and 1 half second at most major sportsbooks, with bettors favoring the “Over”.
I believe that this is a fair line based on a number of different factors, including:
Jon Batiste has performed the national anthem a few times, including a performance at the 2017 NBA All-Star game. This performance clocked in at a little over 2 minutes.
The national anthem performances at the Super Bowl have skewed to the longer side in recent years, with eight of the last twelve anthems clocking in at over 2 minutes in length.
Batiste is a jazz musician and crooner, and these types of artists tend to land on the longer side when it comes to the national anthem, as they tend to slow down their performances and hold longer notes. Alicia Keys is likely a good comp for Batiste, as she also played the piano during her national anthem performance, and she ended up clocking in at over 2 minutes and 30 seconds.
I am targeting the “No” market on 90-100 seconds for Batiste’s performance.
The “No” market is currently priced at around 88 cents. I believe the “No” side should be trading at over 95 cents and that the implied odds are too low, given the factors listed above.
We will be betting 2% of our Polymarket portfolio on this outcome for a potential return of 13.6%, or an annualized return of approximately 400%.