United States Buying Greenland on Polymarket? The Virtual "Lock" With an Annualized Return of Almost 15%
Virtually Zero Chance That United States Closes Deal to Buy Greenland in 2025
Are you looking to bet on a virtual LOCK and receive an annualized return of 15% in the process?
How about the “Will Trump Acquire Greenland in 2025?” market on Polymarket, where the “No” side can currently be purchased for 88 cents.
This works out to an annualized return of 14.96%, which I will take any day of the week for an outcome that likely has a 0.000001% chance of happening, and that’s being generous.
Here are the rules for the market:
Please note that the United States and Denmark must make an official announcement, by the end of 2025, that Greenland is coming under US sovereignty.
Let’s look at where we are at with these discussions:
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, and Denmark has said that there is “no chance” of the United States buying Greenland.
Greenland is overwhelmingly against the idea of joining the United States - they would prefer their independence more than anything.
The United States hasn’t even passed a BILL that would allow negotiations to commence between the two sides.
In order for this market to resolve to yes, the following things would need to happen inside of 11 months:
Congress would need to pass a bill authorizing negotiations between the United States and Denmark.
The two sides would need to agree to terms on an ENORMOUSLY complicated transaction.
Greenland would need to hold a referendum and agree to the terms of the agreement.
Given the GLACIAL pace that the government operates at, do you honestly believe that these three things can be finalized inside of 11 months?
Me neither.
Bet the “No” at 88 cents for an annualized return of nearly 15%, which is better than any bond out there and likely a much better bet.